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Brecon Beacons Fire Risk Modelling Tool (JNCC Report No. 701) 2022

Terrestrial Earth Observation JNCC Publications Satellite data Sentinel-2 0963-8091 701


The Mynydd Du in the Brecon Beacons National Park is a large common land manged by local graziers. Reductions in grazing levels have led to concerns regarding the impact changes in habitat management can have on the landscape and especially to fire regime control and the increased risk of major wildfire events.

Brecon Beacons National Park Authority (BBNPA) and Natural Resources Wales (NRW) sought to understand if spatially targeting land management measures (such as grazing and prescribed burning) could have an effect in reducing wildfire risk on Mynydd Du.

This technical report outlines the model development as part of the JNCC-led project, in which a spatially explicit tool was constructed to support scenario testing of the impact of land management measures in the Mynydd Du on wildfire risk. As part of this proof-of-concept approach, we have developed a multi-criteria analysis model informed by local expertise and Earth observation data to assess the role management practices of grazing and controlled burning has upon the likelihood a habitat is to burn.

Appendices 2 and 3 are available as separate documents.

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Resource type Publication

Topic category Environment

Reference date 2022·06·01

Trippier, B., Jones, A., Jones, G., Harris, M., Woodcock, P., Hassall, I. & Wright, E. 2022. Brecon Beacons Fire Risk Modelling Tool. JNCC Report No. 701, JNCC, Peterborough, ISSN 0963-8091.

This project aimed to create a proof-of-concept, user-friendly decision support tool which could demonstrate the potential impacts of management decisions on fire risk on Mynydd Du, working with partners from National Resources Wales (NRW) and the Brecon Beacons National Park Authority, as well as local stakeholders.

Responsible organisation
Communications, JNCC publisher

Limitations on public access No limitations

Use constraints Available under the Open Government Licence 3.0

Metadata date 2022·06·17

Metadata point of contact
Communications, JNCC

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